Le HCP dresse le point de conjoncture du 4ème trimestre 2020
Selon le Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP) qui vient de rendre public son point de conjoncture, incluant les perspectives pour le T1-2021, l’activité économique nationale aurait régressé de 5,5% au 4ème trimestre de 2020, au lieu de -7,2%, un trimestre auparavant,
Cette évolution serait attribuable à l’atténuation du rythme de la baisse de la valeur ajoutée non-agricole, en ligne avec la poursuite de la reprise des activités tertiaires. Les services non-marchands auraient conservé leur dynamisme amorcé au début de 2020, alors que le repli des activités du commerce, des transports et du tourisme se serait atténué, profitant d’un rattrapage des dépenses de consommation alors que la dynamique de la reprise des branches secondaires se serait heurtée à une inflexion à la baisse des activités industrielles.
Parallèlement, le HCP fait savoir qu’après un redressement des exportations de vêtements et de l’automobile qui avaient dopé la production dans les branches du textile et des industries métallurgiques, mécaniques et électromécaniques (IMME), l’activité industrielle aurait pâti d’un nouveau repli de la demande extérieure.
Pour leur part, les activités de construction auraient conservé leur tendance baissière, pâtissant du repli de l’activité des « Travaux de construction spécialisés » et du « Génie civil ».
Dans les mines, l’activité aurait mieux résisté aux effets de la pandémie, affichant une hausse de 8,1% au T4-2020, en variation annuelle. Cette accélération aurait été attribuable au dynamisme persistant des activités des industries locales de transformation, dopées par un relèvement de la demande internationale des fertilisants.
Le point de conjoncture du HCP fait ressortir que la montée des incertitudes contre d’éventuels retards de livraison ou des difficultés de financement liées à la pandémie covid-19 dans les grands pays producteurs agricoles et le maintien d’une relation plus attrayante entre les prix des cultures et ceux des engrais auraient favorisé un raffermissement des exportations nationales de dérivés de phosphates. En revanche, la production des autres minerais, notamment celle des métaux de base, aurait poursuivi son repli amorcé au début de 2020.
La valeur ajoutée agricole se serait, quant à elle, contractée de 7,4% au T4-2020, en variation annuelle, dans un contexte d’augmentation des coûts de production et du retard des précipitations automnales.
Le maintien du recul des activités des industries de viande et la faible reprise des unités de restauration en période post-confinement auraient pesé sur les activités d’élevage avicole.
De même, la production du lait aurait été peu dynamique, dans le sillage de la contraction de la demande industrielle et de l’augmentation des charges d’alimentation des vaches laitières.
Dans les filières végétales, la baisse de la demande aurait particulièrement concerné les cultures fruitières, dont les quantités importées se seraient inscrites en baisse de plus de 28%.
Atténuation de la baisse de la demande intérieure
La baisse de la demande intérieure se serait légèrement atténuée au quatrième trimestre de l’année écoulée, selon le Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP).
La consommation des ménages, qui avait régressé au troisième trimestre de 10,7%, se serait ainsi infléchie de 3,5% au 4ème trimestre de 2020, sous l’effet du redressement partiel des achats de biens de consommation alimentaires et manufacturés, notamment d’habillement et d’équipement après la réouverture des commerces, précise le HCP dans son point de conjoncture du T4-2020 et perspectives pour le T1-2021. Et d’ajouter que la consommation des administrations publiques serait restée, quant à elle, relativement dynamique, affichant un accroissement de 4,6%, en ligne avec la hausse des dépenses de fonctionnement et des services sociaux. L’investissement aurait, pour sa part, poursuivi sa tendance baissière, pâtissant du repli de l’équipement en produits manufacturés et immobiliers.
Par ailleurs, le HCP fait savoir que le commerce mondial des marchandises se serait essoufflé au 4ème trimestre 2020, suite aux mesures d’endiguement des nouvelles vagues de la pandémie covid-19, après une reprise partielle des échanges des produits manufacturés (électroniques, du textile et de l’automobile) au T3-2020. Dans ce contexte, la demande mondiale adressée au Maroc aurait suivi la même tendance, marquant une baisse de 4,1% en glissement annuel au quatrième trimestre.
Au niveau national, les exportations des biens et services, en volume, se seraient repliées de 8,5% en variation annuelle, tandis que les importations, en volume, auraient reculé de 6,5% au quatrième trimestre 2020.
Légère décélération de l’inflation
Les prix à la consommation auraient légèrement décéléré au quatrième trimestre 2020, affichant une hausse de +0,5%, en glissement annuel, au lieu de +0,7% un trimestre plus tôt, selon le Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP).
Ce ralentissement aurait été plus marqué au niveau des prix des produits alimentaires (+0,6%, au lieu de +1% au trimestre précédent), qu’à celui des prix des produits non-alimentaires (+0,4%, après +0,5%), relève le HCP dans son point de conjoncture du T4-2020 et perspectives pour le T1-2021.
Ce serait principalement les prix des produits frais, en particulier ceux des fruits qui auraient le plus décéléré.
S’agissant de l’inflation sous-jacente, qui exclut les prix soumis à l’intervention de l’Etat et les produits à prix volatils, elle aurait de nouveau ralenti à +0,1% seulement au T4-2020, reflétant une décélération de sa composante alimentaire et plus particulièrement des prix des viandes fraîches.
Sur l’ensemble de l’année 2020, l’inflation, quoiqu’en légère accélération (+0,7%) par rapport à l’année précédente (+0,2%) resterait, relativement, faible, sous l’effet du repli des prix de l’énergie provoqué par la baisse des cours du pétrole sur le marché international. De son coté, l’inflation sous-jacente resterait pratiquement faible pour se situer à +0,5%, au lieu de +0,6% en 2019.
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