The truth behind Morocco’s threat to Spain’s geostrategic security

By Moroccan MP and former Minister of Tourism, Lahcen Haddad

The Spanish Institute for Security and Culture has recently released a new study entitled “Morocco, the Strait of Gibraltar, and the potential threat to Spain”. The study was conducted by three alleged “security experts” and potential PhD candidates in the field of security and strategic studies, Guillem Colom Piella, Chiarmo Pulido Pulido, and Mario Guillamo Roman.

The study is not of high academic and scientific value; yet, it managed to gain momentum among prominent Spanish websites such as “Espanyol”, “Survey Media”, “Fos Popoli”, “Europe Sur” and “La Tribune del Bays Pasco”, from which, we can only assume that the latter is subject to media promotion by the Spanish deep state.

We understand how easy it is to fall for such conspiracies, however, the timing upon which this study was conducted, the nature of those promoting it, and the way it was marketed in the media, bring us to raise several questions on who is actually behind it? What purpose does it serve? And whether it carries coded messages to the Spanish public opinion and to the Moroccan side as well? (Moroccan sites such as Hespress and others, picked up the signal, and discussed the matter as well).

In the prospect of seeking proper answers to these questions, let us all engage in analysing the theses regulating this study.

For starters, we shall recall that the contents of this study reflect a deepened conviction among several educated elites, analysts, media structures, and Spain’s public opinion.

History has taught us that Spain has always held a grudge against the “Moros”; that is to say, Muslim invaders who conquered Andalusia and occupied its lands for eight centuries. The Spanish approach suggests that these newcomers (Moros) are neither Berbers, nor Arabs, for they are in fact pure Moroccan invaders, and that there is still an unbroken ethnic, cultural and political link between those who conquered Andalusia in the eighth century AD, and the 20th-21st century Moroccans. Moreover, there is a firm conviction among the Spanish public opinion that Morocco has expansionist ambitions within the region, stipulating that the latter uses issues related to immigration and the fight against terrorism as a means of bargaining with the purpose of cornering their Spanish counterparts, thus making concessions.

Upon urging the Spanish journalist specializing in the Moroccan-Algerian relations, Ignacio Cembrero, via Twitter, to provide examples of this supposed Moroccan pressure on Spain, the latter failed to come up with anything convincing to support his claim; yet, I am fully aware that the Spanish approach to the matter has been established for long, for it constitutes one of the pillars for Spain’s popular and official perception of the historical and political relations between the two countries.

Upon reviewing the aforementioned study, we come to realize that the latter’s regulating thesis stipulates that “the recent American recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara is likely to put the Spanish national security at risk”, and shall lead to a “double” ordeal for the Spanish state, suggesting that the ongoing conflict between Morocco and Algeria vis-à-vis their arms race will reach “higher levels”, which shall bring dire consequences for “security in the Strait of Gibraltar”. The study also suggests that Morocco’s army mobilization, as well as the kingdom’s unprecedented influence over the Sahara region, shall have an impact on “Spain’s territorial integrity”, according to the study authors. That being said, the authors believe that once Morocco achieves full sovereignty over the Sahara, the kingdom is more likely to launch a campaign against Spain for the latter to renounce its right to both Ceuta and Melilla.

In light of the above, it becomes clear that the authors of this study tend to falsely justify that Morocco aims at re-establishing its glory days (i.e., the imperial Morocco during the rule of the Almoravids, the Monotheists and the Saadiites), and that the claim to Ceuta and Melilla is key to reviving this dream.

The “Greater Maghreb” as a concept has been falsely-promoted in order to raise awareness among African countries with regard to Morocco’s claims to the Sahara; however, several Spaniards, especially those latching on conspiracy theories, tend to believe that Morocco’s stances regarding immigration, Ceuta, Melilla and Sahara issues, constitute an integral pillar of this long-term scheme.

The study has also questioned the Moroccan armed forces’ expenditure, claiming that the value of funds allocated to the army alone is much greater than what has been previously revealed, without actually providing any evidence on the matter. Moreover, the study turned a blind eye to the fact that the issue on Ceuta and Melilla is a matter of decolonization for the Moroccan side. In fact, this study failed to analyse Morocco’s attachment to its territorial integrity, for it tends to promote the idea that the Sahara issue is Morocco’s first step towards claiming rights to Ceuta and Melilla, and that the kingdom has actually adopted a passive attitude with regard to both cities in return for Spain’s commitment to support Morocco’s sovereign claims to the Sahara. Therefore, it is safe to say that Spain tends to keep the Sahara issue unresolved, for this situation serves its interests in Ceuta and Melilla, provided that the kingdom is unlikely to engage in a new conflict with its northern neighbour, as long as its ongoing challenges within the south still exist.

On the other hand, it is true that Morocco’s demarcation of its maritime borders – as I have already indicated in an article within “Al-Sharq Al-Awsat” newspaper under the title “the Dimensions of Morocco’s demarcation of its maritime borders … and the inevitability of dialogue with Spain”, on February 09, 2020 – shall require a convergence of views between both Spanish and Moroccan sides, especially with regard to the maritime borders between the Canary Islands and the Moroccan Sahara, as well as the exploitation of the continental shelf, south of the Canary Islands; however, the authors of this study, along with several Spanish elites, chose to turn their backs to the fact that such relations shall serve as a potential source of economic integration and cooperation for both countries, in order to ensure sustainable exploitation of their common sea resources. In fact, the Spanish side tended to stick to its own made-up story, stipulating that Morocco has expansionist ambitions that represent a serious threat to Spain.

In conclusion, we can only assume that this study tends to promote the Spanish approach to Morocco’s ambitions, provided that the latter represents a strategic threat to Spain’s territorial integrity, despite both sides’ overlapping interests, and their advanced economic, political, social and cultural relations. Meanwhile, the study has shown that the Spanish elite have no interest in understanding Morocco’s decolonial motives, despite the widely-practiced anti-colonial democracy within Spanish society. Finally, the study has brought us to believe that Morocco’s economic, technological and military development shall be properly covered by the Spanish and French media for instance, in order for such countries to feel reassured with regard to Morocco’s legitimate claims, its peaceful methods, and its right to defend its borders and territorial integrity, as well as its vital interests.