Le HCP estime la croissance économique en 2021 à 4,6%
L’économie nationale devrait enregistrer une croissance de 4,6% en 2021, après une récession de 7% au cours de l’année écoulée, prévoit le Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP), en tenant compte d’une évolution de 4,7% prévue des impôts et taxes sur produits nets de subventions, le produit intérieur brut (PIB) devrait enregistrer une croissance de l’ordre de 4,6% en 2021.
En valeur, le PIB devrait progresser de 5,8%, précise la même source, notant que cette évolution fait ressortir une légère hausse de l’inflation, mesurée par l’indice implicite du PIB, de 1,1% au lieu de -0,1% en 2020.
« Les perspectives économiques nationales pour l’année 2021 tablent sur une reprise de la demande extérieure adressée au Maroc en raison des espoirs nés du lancement des campagnes de vaccination, ce qui devrait favoriser l’ouverture des frontières et entrainer un regain de confiance des ménages et des investisseurs. Ces prévisions économiques prennent également en considération les dispositions annoncées dans la loi de finances 2021 et supposent la réalisation d’une production céréalière moyenne de 75 millions de quintaux durant la campagne 2020/2021″.
+ Une légère baisse du taux de chômage à 11,1% +
Sur la base de ces hypothèses, et avec la consolidation des autres cultures, de l’élevage etde la pêche maritime, la valeur ajoutée du secteur primaire devrait enregistrer une hausse de 11% en 2021, alors que celle du secteur secondaire devrait augmenter de 4,1%, suite à un regain de dynamisme dû à l’amélioration des demandes extérieure et intérieure.
Par ailleurs, le secteur tertiaire devrait connaître une légère hausse de son rythme de croissance de 3,4% en 2021 au lieu d’une baisse de 6,8% en 2020. Ce redressement s’explique par une reprise lente et graduelle des activités des services marchands, particulièrement celles du transport et du commerce, tirées par la demande intérieure suite aux effets positifs attendus de la vaccination anti-Covid19. Cependant, l’activité touristique devrait continuer de pâtir des effets de la crise. Pour accélérer son redémarrage, le secteur touristique devrait bénéficier du plan de relance mis en œuvre dans le cadre d’un contrat programme (2020-2022). Ce plan ambitieux vise le soutien financier, l’encadrement et l’appui des entreprises touristiques.
Pour sa part, le marché du travail connaitrait une légère baisse du taux de taux chômage qui serait de 11,1% au lieu de 12,8% en 2020.
Le Budget économique prévisionnel 2021 présente une révision du budget économique exploratoire publié au mois de juillet 2020. Il s’agit d’une nouvelle estimation de la croissance de l’économie nationale en 2020 et d’une révision de ses perspectives en 2021 et leurs effets sur les équilibres macroéconomiques interne et externe.
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